Friday, December 09, 2005

What is Ahmedinejad playing at?

Okay, the word's out: Iran can have a nuke within months, which means for certain by next Christmas... to what purpose?

Step One: Get Nukes.
Step Two: ????
Step Three: Profit.
  • If Iran tries to glass Israel, it will get pasted, and pasted HARD, in return, because the US interests dictate that it absolutely cannot allow a nuclear first strike to go unanswered (if it does, China gets carte blanche to wipe Taiwan off the map and then simply resettle it as the ultimate unsinkable aircraft carrier). Same thing goes for a container bomb nuke in Haifa... we all know who the suppliers are.
  • If Iran has the bomb, then it's unlikely to be invaded by the US because of its unfortunate habit of flinging legates and janissaries across the globe. But the chance that the US would invade, rather than simply wait for demographics to inevitably crush the regime under the weight of its own self-inflicted resentment, is miniscule at most.
  • Ahmedinejad and the Iranian security forces are known to be big fans of Huntington and his "Clash" thesis.. and what's more, they think they can win. But against whom? They have no close enemies, Iraq forms a serious buffer between Iran and Israel, and the opponent for whom they'd love to dig a grave is half the globe away and could bomb them into the stone age inside of two weeks, with or without Russia's new SAM sales. (And if the Pentagon serious about creating the "rods of God," which would explain its push for a launch capacity within a two-hour window, even faster.)
Either Ahmedinejad is so far gone with his millenarian "hidden Imam" thing that he should be regarded as a loon, or else he's got something long-range up his sleeve. Or does he? Given his known self-inflicted domestic political problems, is it arguable that he's simply not competent, and has fetishized "Step One: Get Nukes" without having them predicated upon "Step Two?"

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